Churn Calculator

Project MRR and customer retention over time, and see how monthly churn caps your growth.

$/mo
3.0%
1.0%
80%
Projected MRR after 24 months
$126,309
At 3.0% monthly churn, the average customer stays about 2 yr 9 mo.
Customer lifetime
2 yr 9 mo
Lifetime value
$1,970
Net revenue retention
78%
Revenue churned
$64,567
Existing revenue churns at the monthly rate, then grows by the expansion rate; new and reactivated customers join at ARPU. A planning estimate, not a guarantee.
MRR over time
$200k$100k$0Now12mo24mo

Adding 100 customers/mo against 22% net annual revenue churn, MRR levels off near $246,305. Cutting churn or lifting expansion raises that ceiling.

How the model works

Each month, existing revenue shrinks by the churn rate and grows by the expansion rate, while new and reactivated customers join at your average revenue per user. Net revenue retention (NRR) captures both effects in one number: (1 − churn) × (1 + expansion). When NRR is below 100%, a fixed stream of new customers eventually settles into a steady-state MRR, because inflow exactly offsets the revenue lost each month. When NRR is 100% or higher, expansion outruns churn on its own and MRR keeps compounding with no ceiling, even without adding a single new customer.

How to read the results

Customer lifetime is simply 1 divided by the monthly churn rate: at 3% monthly churn, a customer sticks around about 33 months on average. Lifetime value multiplies your ARPU and gross margin by that same retention math, so it rises when churn falls or expansion picks up. The chart's dashed ceiling line only appears when the projection is close enough to actually reach it within the horizon you're viewing; far-off ceilings are omitted so the curve isn't flattened into a straight line.

Caveats worth knowing

This is a cohort-level average, not a forecast for any individual customer, and it assumes churn, expansion, and new-customer volume all stay constant across the horizon, which real businesses rarely do exactly. Seasonality, pricing changes, and one-time enterprise deals will all move the actual numbers around this baseline. Use it to compare scenarios and sanity-check targets, not as a guaranteed revenue plan.